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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/13 11:08

   Soybeans Higher in Midday Trade

   Corn is 1 cent to 2 cents higher; soybeans are 4 cents to 6 cents higher, 
and wheat is 1 cents to 4 cents higher. Outside markets are lightly mixed. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments



   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed to flat with the Dow 50 higher. The 
U.S. dollar index is 9 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. 
Energies are lower with crude down .25 cent. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs 
limit higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold $6.00 lower.


   Corn is 2 cents to 3 cents higher at midday with follow-through buying from 
the strong finish Thursday and more optimism on the trade front. Weather 
remains a short-term nonissue with higher temperatures and wetter weather to 
the north. Corn basis should start to see more pressure in the south with 
harvest soon. The expected ethanol policy announcements have yet to come this 
week, with margins still under pressure and flat futures Friday morning. The 
WASDE report pegged yield at 168.2 bushels per acre (bpa), down 1.3 bpa from 
August, but above expectations, with old crop carryout at 2.446 billion bushels 
(bb), up 84 million bushels (mb) from last month, and new crop at 2.19 bb up, 9 
mb from last month, with acres unchanged on softer demand. On the December 
contract support is at the 20-day at $3.66 with the upper Bollinger band above 
trade at $3.79. 


   Soybean trade is 4 cents to 6 cents higher with trade optimism helping us 
consolidate action right around $9.00 on the November contract. Meal is $2.50 
to $3.50 higher, and oil is flat to 10 cents higher. Crush margins remain 
positive with meal back to $300 a ton. The bullish export story needs China 
coming forward as U.S. export competitiveness improves on the world market with 
active bookings off the Pacific Northwest the last few days with 204,000 metric 
tons (mt) on the daily wire Friday. Bean basis remains flat in the interior. 
South American currencies remain weak as planting season draws closer. On the 
report, yield was 48.2 bpa, down .3 bpa with larger but fewer pods, with 
old-crop carryout at 1.054 bb, down 65 mb from last month, and new crop at 640 
mb, down 105 mb from last month, with acres unchanged. On the November chart we 
have support at the 50-day at $8.84 and the upper Bollinger band at $8.91, with 
resistance being the 200-day at $9.15. 


   Wheat trade is 1 cent to 4 cents higher with trade following the lead of the 
row crops with the winter wheat leading with little fresh news for the wheat. 
The Kansas City/Chicago spread is at 82 cents, back at the high end of the 
range. The corn/HRW spread is tight hanging around the 37-cent area. KC wheat 
is competitive on the world market, but we need to see the business and more 
buyers to move the board out away from our lows. Spring wheat harvest is in the 
home stretch. The report came in unchanged at 1.98 bb of production, and stocks 
at 1.014 bb. The December KC chart support is at the 20-day at $4.00, with 
resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at $4.13.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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