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DTN Midday Grain Comments     11/23 10:55

   All Grains Higher at Midday

   Corn is 2 to 4 cents higher, soybeans are 9 to 11 cents higher and wheat is 
2 to 7 cents higher at midday Monday.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 140. The dollar index is 30 
points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with 
crude up $0.40. Livestock trade is sharply higher. Precious metals are weaker 
with gold off $42.


   Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents higher with spillover support from soybeans and 
weaker spread action after gapping higher and scoring a new high by about a 
penny overnight. In addition, USDA announced another export sale of 334,000 
metric tons to unknown. Ethanol has lost some ground to unleaded, reducing the 
premium. Meanwhile, margins remain fairly stable with short-term demand the 
biggest issue going into the holiday week, along with further lockdowns on the 
horizon. Basis remains generally strong. Weekly export inspections were in line 
with last week at 832,637 metric tons, with harvest effectively complete. On 
the December contract, support is the 20-day at $4.11 with the lower Bollinger 
band at $3.94 as the next level down with the fresh high scored at $4.29 3/4 
overnight and the upper Bollinger band at $4.32 above that.


   Soybeans trade is 9 to 11 cents higher with a gap higher opening as more 
weather concerns build for South America. The trade is also being supported by 
continued demand expectations, though the daily wire remains quiet. Meal is 
$1.50 to $2.50 higher, and oil is 35 to 45 points higher. South America has 
some dry pockets building with northern Brazil looking to see more moisture 
short term. The southern third is forecast to be very dry the next week. Wetter 
weather is expected in Argentina after recent dryness. Basis remains strong as 
we continue to work to max out our logistics capacity to ship the needed export 
bushels with freight issues remaining in play. Weekly export inspections remain 
strong at 2.01 million metric tons. The January chart has resistance at the 
fresh high of $12 scored Monday morning, with the upper Bollinger band at 
$12.17. Support is the 20-day at $11.20.


   Wheat trade is 2 to 7 cents higher at midday with Chicago action leading 
again. The wheat trade is following the lead of the row crops with little 
change to U.S. Plains weather. The dollar has turned higher after early 
weakness. World export tenders continue to go to Black Sea origin, for the most 
part, with little change in overall conditions there. The western Plains look 
to see some potential improvement, with the last USDA Crop Progress report 
likely showing steady conditions for winter wheat. Weekly export inspections 
rebounded a bit at 358,077 metric tons. KC is at 47-cent discount to Chicago 
with spreads remaining rangebound. Minneapolis is at -53. KC December chart 
resistance is the 20-day at $5.52, which we are just above overnight, and 
support is the lower Bollinger band at $5.40.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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