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DTN Midday Grain Comments     11/18 11:05

   Wheat Leads at Midday; Row Crops Struggle to Hold Lows

   Corn futures are 2 cents lower; soybean futures are 3 to 4 cents lower, and 
wheat futures are flat to 5 cents higher.  

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments



   Corn futures are 2 cents lower; soybean futures are 3 to 4 cents lower, and 
wheat futures are flat to 5 cents higher.  The U.S. stock market is mixed with 
the Dow up 9. The U.S. dollar index is 30 lower. Interest rate products are 
weaker. Energies are weaker with crude .90 lower. Livestock trade is mixed with 
hogs sharply lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold up 4.70 higher.


   Corn futures are 2 cents lower with trade scoring new lows for the move as 
selling picks up during the day session amid little fresh news. Ethanol margins 
remain stable with cheaper corn offsetting the pullback in blender margins with 
unleaded fading. Basis has held up well with the slow pace of harvest; propane 
shortages still noted, but warmer weather should help through this week. South 
America should see areas of improvement as planting progresses, especially in 
Brazil. Weekly export inspections improved slightly to 637,397 metric tons (mt) 
with another 132,000 mt hitting the daily wire. Harvest should move past the 
75% mark, getting us on the downhill slide. On the December contract support is 
the $3.68 low Monday along with the lower Bollinger Band at the same level, 
with resistance the 20-day moving average at $3.81. 


   Soybean futures are 3 to 4 cents lower with light, two-sided trade to start 
the week before turning weaker with political and trade concerns remaining at 
the forefront with another flare up in Hong Kong over the weekend. Meal is 
$4.00 to $5.00 lower and oil is 30 to 40 points higher. The real remains at the 
lows with planting getting to 70% complete in Brazil. Bean basis has moved to a 
more-sideways trend short term with pockets of firmness showing up at crushers 
with NOPA crush setting a record last month. Weekly export inspections were 
strong at 1.532 million metric tons (mmt). Weekly harvest progress should be in 
the 95% range. On the January chart support is the lower Bollinger band at 
$9.10, which we are back above with resistance well above the market at $9.30.


   Wheat futures are flat to 6 cents higher with the winter wheats leading at 
midday. The Chicago/KC December spread is 86 cents with steady action to start 
the week. The corn/HRW spread has widened back to 53 cents, pushing wheat 
further from the feed bunk. The weaker dollar could help more if sustained vs. 
world values this week. Weekly export sales inspections slipped a little to 
449,304 mt. Weekly crop progress is expected to show planting nearly complete, 
emergence lagging a bit, with conditions likely to decline slightly. The 
December KC chart support is the lower Bollinger band at $4.14, with resistance 
the 20-day at 4.23, which we are testing at midday.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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